City Manager Jon Williams told VoxPopuli that the rate study had not been commissioned as a hedge against property tax losses related to potential passage of Amendment 3. He said that these kinds of studies should be done every five to six years as part of city planning.

“It’s been 10 years since we’ve done an actual rate study,” Williams said. “We’ve seen historically over the last few years that our capital costs are increasing at a rate that’s much higher than what we’re doing with the FPSC indexing [Florida Public Service Commission], and our tipping fees [what haulers pay to drop trash at landfills or processing plants] are starting to increase at significant amounts over time. We felt like this was an opportunity to go back and do an actual rate sufficiency study and then bring back a recommendation outside of the normal index.”

Explaining the study, Trevor McCarthy, a manager with Rafetelis, said that the Florida Public Service Commission index used to set customer rates “has not kept pace with inflation in actual operating expenses.”

He described the 7-percent boost to waste removal rates as an “adjustment” to “break even” in 2027. Then, he said, rates would increase by 3.5 percent annually from 2028 to 2030, with a 2 percent increase in 2031.

McCarthy said that based on 2025 data, Rafetelis had projected Winter Garden's revenues to be $7.9 million in 2027 with slight growth to $7.964 million in 2031. Meanwhile, operating expenses — including labor, fuel, maintenance and disposal costs — are projected to climb steadily from $7.4 million in 2027 to $8.4 million by 2031.

“We see inflation and the cost is outpacing the revenue increases from our customer growth,” McCarthy said.

Rafetelis also advocated for establishing an emergency fund for post-storm debris removal in 2027. He recommended starting the fund $250,000, then adding annual contributions of $100,000.

Storm cleanup is “very costly” McCarthy noted. “We think it’s a prudent idea to set aside an amount of money for that purpose. Reimbursement from FEMA and the state is often slow. It can take years sometimes and potentially not 100 percent of that cost is going to be reimbursed.”

What would Winter Garden pay?

How might this tumble out for Winter Garden residents? Let’s take a look.

Winter Garden residents currently pay $24.87 per month for a 95-gallon trash can and twice weekly garbage pick-up. McCarthy noted that 95 percent of Winter Garden’s garbage pickup customers fall into the residential category.

Under the plan recommended by Rafetelis, here’s how residential rates would change:

2027: 7 percent. This amounts to a $1.74-increase to $26.61 a month (or an additional $20.88 a year)

2028: 3.5 percent. This amounts to a 93-cent increase to $27.54 (or an additional $11.16 a year)

2029: 3.5 percent. This amounts to a 96-cent increase to $28.50 (or an additional $11.52 a year)

2030: 3.5 percent. This amounts to a $1 increase to $29.50 (or an additional $12)

2031: 2 percent. This amounts to a 59-cent increase to $30.09 (or an additional $7.08)

Customers who choose to trade their 95-gallon garbage bin for a 65-gallon bin could potentially receive a price break, holding the current $24.87 rate through 2028.

Williams said this option was “specifically designed for the single-person household ... that may not generate the same amount of garbage as a full family.”

McCarthy noted that even with the proposed increases, $26.61 was still below the average $26.68 per month being charged in the cities they surveyed including, Ocoee, Clermont, Apopka, Oakland, Lake Mary, Minneola, Orlando, Groveland, Oviedo, Sanford, Maitland, Altamonte Springs, Mount Dora, Casselbery, Longwood, Winter Springs and Orange and Seminole counties.

Rafetelis also presented what it called a “phased plan,” which called for 4.5 percent annual increases from 2027 through 2030, dropping to 2 percent in 2031. This would raise the monthly rate in 2027 to $25.98 in 2027, reaching $29.89 in 2031. McCarthy said the company favored the 7-percent plan because it maintained higher levels of cash reserves.

For commercial service, 2027 rate increases would include $6.56 for 2 cubic-yard dumpsters; $12.62 for 4 cubic-yard dumpsters; and $18.74 for 6 cubic-yard dumpsters. McCarthy said that on average other cities, like Ocoee, Apopka, Groveland, Sanford, Lake Mary and Orlando, were charging 11 percent more for commercial waste disposal than Winter Garden.

Mayor John Rees greeted the rate study with enthusiasm, calling it “a good report,” but said he had “quite a few questions” and wanted to review it.

Williams said that the city staff had not planned for any action to be taken on the five-year plan yet and that they would “seek direction at a future meeting.”